General Election In The Wind!

Sometimes the apple just ripens and simply drops off the tree. That is how it is beginning to feel with this current government and their tenure in office. It's feeling very much like they are about to just drop off the Government tree. A couple of things have made me feel that way. Some are tangible - others less so.

Firstly the announcement that the by-elections would be held in March/April. No way. That is virtually 'game over' and I suspect the Governement knows it will have lost its working majority before then. It seemed to me an almost coded acceptance that there will be a General Election in the Spring (although I would not be surprised if it were before Christmas in fact.)

Secondly, we have suspended bond auctions until next Spring. That would cover the period of 'instability' that an election would inevitably throw up so it gives a window of opportunity.

Thirdly, Fianna Fail know that they have no mandate to be introducing four-year budget plans; plans which seek to commit future Governments! I suspect the European Union is behind the four-year plan and that they will insist on a stable government to see it through. That means the GE would have to be brought forward as FF/Greens/Inds cannot deliver that - even if they were to go full term.

Then we have the whole issue of reduced pensions for those who retire after the end of this year! This, I would imagine would weigh heavily on the minds of certain TD's and Ministers who are likely to either not run again or would lose their seats. Next year those entitlements will be considerably reduced. This is a crucial one in my book. If there's going to be an election next year anyway (and by the looks of it that is inevitable) then why would you throw away your superior pension for the sake of four more months in office???? Especially when you are of the 'kind of grabbing mentality' that some of our elected represenatives have demonstrated!

Then we have the jumping jelly-beans known as the Fianna Fail backbenchers many of whom can smell an election in the wind and will be nervously trying to do everything to save their own seats. Unortunately for the Government that means distancing themselves from this current administration. Watch for the rats deserting the sinking ship I say. And a flurry of 'I put my constituency first' or 'Independent' runs.

The Government heads are down. The senior civil servant heads are down. If nothing else this Country needs an opportunity to let off steam and the 'machine' of the permanent Government needs an infusion of new thinking and new blood.

The signs are there. The election clock is almost at midnight from where I'm looking. Let's see who blinks first.