Will The Government Last?

Maybe I'm reading the signs all wrong but I don't think the Greens are going to pull the plug this weekend. (If they do, expect an apologetic blog next week!) I think the Greens are still naive enough to think that they can achieve a lot if they stay. I think the trouble for the Government is going to come from the Fianna Fáil back-benchers.

Lets face it: all the indications are, that whenever the next election occurs, Fianna Fáil are going to lose their shirts and that all but the safest seats will be lost. So a back-bencher has nothing to lose and everything to gain locally by being seen to stand up to local cuts.

I use Michael Lowry as an example. I know he's not a FF back-bencher but it illustrates the principle. Regardless of the consequences, Lowry has let it be known that he will withdraw his support for the government if Tipperary Institute (his local college with a pupil-teacher ratio at a reported 1 to 4!) is closed - as per the recommendations in the McCarthy report. This guarantees him returning to Dáil Eireann by a grateful local electorate.

Now say if you're a FF back-bencher in a dodgy seat. What have you got to lose by seeking to save your own seat - and ONLY your own seat - by pulling down the government on some local issue of principle close to your constituents hearts? The electorate in Ireland have shown time and time again that they will reward TD's who put local interests ahead of anything else - even the so-called National Interest.

All of the work that's going into re-negotiating the Programme for Government at the moment with its aspirations to lessen TD numbers (some hope!) and to reform the expenses system is merely tinkering around the edges of what is a broken system. I feel sorry for TD's in one sense: you get elected on a promise of what you can deliver or will do - and once you have your knees under the table you discover pretty quickly that you can deliver nothing at all and can do fairly little either. This is the ultimate frustration of politics. You aspire to change the world but the system is designed to stay the same. So you content yourself with keeping your own personal, local electorate happy. Telling them what they want to hear even if this means sacrificing the greater good to do so.

So that's my prediction for what it's worth. I reckon Fianna Fáil will survive the coming Green Conference but will have a much tougher time getting a painful and cutting budget through their own back-benches.